中国省域林业生态安全格局的预警性测度——生态与产业共生的视角

China's Provincial Spatial Distribution for Measuring Forest Ecological Security: Based on Ecology-Industry Symbiosis

基于林业生态和产业共生理论来进行林业生态安全测度研究,更能体现出生态安全是由自然生态和社会经济生态共同组成复合系统的安全。在前期研究建立的林业Lotka-Volterra共生模型和算法基础上对2013年31个省区的林业生态安全空间格局进行测度研究,通过核算、评价、监测、判定等手段对各个省区的林业生态安全状况进行分析,可以为林业生态安全起到预警和调控作用。首先计算出共生模型中的产业水平指数I、生态水平指数E、环境容量指数C等三类基本指数和各省区的两个共生受力指数SI(k)和SE(k),以及森林生态和林业产业间的共生度指数S(k);然后通过共生受力指数SI(k)、SE(k)的正负号,以及共生度指数S(k)的大小来对中国31个省区的林业生态安全情况判断,计算结果中包括1个红色预警区域、1个橙色预警区域、1个黄色预警区域、5个蓝色预警区域、1个转折型蓝色预警区域,其余22个区域为绿色健康安全区域;最后对9个预警区域进行生态和产业共生模式的类别和原因分析,包括生态受益而产业受损的单利模式、生态受损而产业受益的单利模式、生态和产业互相抑制的竞争模式、生态和产业互利共生模式等四类模式。结果验证了林业Lotka-Volterra共生模型具有将指标体系法与特征指数方法集成的优势,既具有明确的生态经济意义,又具有可以追溯原因的优势;采用的双特征动态判断矩阵可以起到前因性预警和后果性预测作用,对林业生态安全的监测与控制更具应用价值。

Research of the forestry ecological security measure can better embody the concept that ecological security is a compound system composed of natural ecology and social economy ecology based on ecology-industry symbiosis theory.Forestry L-V symbiosis model is adopted to proceed the instance researched to China＇ s provincial spatial distribution for Measuring Forest Ecological Security.The spatial distribution for Measuring Forest Ecological Security can analyze each province＇ s forestry ecological security situation through calculation, evaluation, monitoring and judgment.First, we calculated the forestry industry index I,the forestry ecological index E,the environmental capacity index C,and two symbiotic stress index SI（k） ,SE（k） in additon to the symbiotic index between the forestry industry and forest ecology S（k）.Second ,we judged each province＇s forestry ecological security situation by the plus or minus of SI（k） and SE（k）, also by measuring the size of S（k） .The result includes 1 red early warning area, 1 orange early warning area, 1 yellow warning area,5 blue early warning area, 1 adversative blue early warning area,and 22 green health and safety area.Finally, we analyzed the category and reasons of the forestry ecological and industrial symbiosis patterns of the above 9 early warning areas including the four patterns：the pattern beneficial to the forestry ecological but harmful to the forestry industry, the pattern harmful to the forestry ecological but beneficial to the forestry industry,the competitive pattern of forestry ecological and forestry industrial, and the mutually beneficial and win-win pattern.Forestry L-V symbiosis model can complement each other＇ s advantages between indicators system and characteristic indexes,not only for remaining the ecological economy significance of FES characteristic index, but also for tracing FES problem back to its reasons through indicators system.The method has ＇causative pre-warning＇ function and ＇consequent forecasting＇ function with its applicatory monitoring and control value for the forestry ecological security.