黄山风景区雷暴电场特征及预警方法研究

Study on characteristic of electric field during thunderstorm process in Huangshan Mountain scenic spot and its lightning warning method

利用2011—2012年黄山风景区大气电场仪和闪电定位仪观测数据,统计分析了黄山风景区雷暴过程近地表静电场特征,并选取预报因子建立了雷电预警的预报方程。结果表明:黄山风景区雷暴地面电场以负电场为主导,雷暴过程多伴随电场的正跳变,闪电类型主要为负地闪。选取电场反转和电场差分值超过0.1 k V·m-1·s-1作为预警因子,采用多元回归方法对未来40 min内出现闪电的概率P建立雷电预警方程,建立的预报方程通过了F检验,表明P值大于0.4时预警效果较好,结合是否出现雷暴电场小波分解第七层高频分量的突变特征可以改进预警效果。

Using observed data from atmospheric electric field instrument and lightning location system in Huangshan scenic spot from 2011 to 2012,characteristics of electric field above surface during a thunderstorm process were analyzed,and forecasting equation for lightning was established by choosing appropriate factors. The results showthat the negative electric field is dominant in Huangshan scenic spot. Electric field easily tends to positive jumping during the thunderstorm process,and the main polarity of lighting is negative in Huangshan scenic spot.Polarity reversals of electric field and electric field differential value above 0. 1 k V·m-1·s-1are chosen as warning parameters,and a warning probability equation of lightning in the next 40 minutes is established by a multiple regression method. The forecasting results are passing F hypothesis test,and it shows that warning effect is good when P value is greater than 0. 4. Lightning warning effect could be improved by combing mutation of high frequency component in the 7th layer by wavelet decomposition occurrence or not.