最优债务条件与经济增长——基于中国省级经验数据

Optimal Debt Arrangements under conditions and Economic Growth——Based on the Provincial empirical data of China

债务曾在中国过去长期高速经济增长中被奉为"神明",又在当前经济步入"新常态"阶段而被斥为"魔鬼",事实上,债务本身并无"善恶"之分,也不存在各地区普适的最优债务安排,合理的债务规模和结构应该适于经济体所处发展阶段。为探究经济增长目标下的最优债务条件,本文基于1978-2012年中国省级面板数据,实证研究发现中国的债务规模和债务结构之间存在着相互制约关系,债务总规模与公共性债务"双重增长"存在"最优解",在此"最优解"之前无论是债务规模的增长或是公共性债务的增长均会带来经济增长,而在达到这一上限后,要实现经济增长,唯有在降低债务规模或是债务结构调整之间做出权衡。债务规模和债务结构的"最优解"以区域金融结构、财政收支、国有经济投资比重、城镇化率等为条件,稳健性检验再次验证了上述结论,并在此基础上提出相关政策建议。

Debt used to regarded as the＂god＂in China＇s rapid economic growth in the past and is now dismissed as the＂devil＂as the country＇s economy has stepped into a＂new normal＂phase at present. In fact,the debt itself is neither＂good＂nor＂evil＂,and there is no such thing as universal optimal debt arrangements,so a reasonable debt arrangement should be in line with the size and stage of the economic development. To explore the optimal conditions of debt for economic growth target,this paper conducts an emipirical research based on China＇s provincial Panel Data from 1978 to 2012 and finds that there is a mutual restraint between China＇s debt scale and debt structure,and there exists an＂optimal solution＂in the＂double growth＂of debt scale and debt structure Before the optimal solution,both the growth of debt scale and the growth of public debt ratio will lead to economic growth,but after reaching this limit,only by making trade-offs between reducing debt scale or restructuring debt can economic growth be achieved.. The optimal solution of the regional debt scale and debt structure is attained in the premise of the financial structure,financial revenue and expenditure,the proportion of state-owned investment and the urbanization rate. The robustness test further verifies these conclusions of the paper again. Lastly,some relevant policy recommendations have been put forward based on the conclusions of this paper.