地方政府债务规模扩张的影响研究——基于省级地方政府城投债的经验证据

A Study on the Expansion of Local Government Debt Size—— Based on the Evidence from Provincial-level Administrative Areas Quasi-municipal Bond

文章以2009-2013年27个省份的城投债发行额为研究样本,实证检验影响地方政府债务规模扩张的关键因素。研究发现,内部激励因素(信号传递激励)和外部压力因素(政府治理因素)均会对地方政府债务规模扩张产生影响,并且腐败程度越高、财政透明度越低,地方政府债务规模越大;财政分权程度越低、晋升激励越高以及经济发展水平越高,地方政府债务规模越大。因此,构建廉洁高效、公开透明的地方政府,发挥信号传递的激励作用,有助于维持债务规模的稳定性;另一方面,完善政府债务治理机制,通过优化官员年龄结构、保持地区经济可持续发展,有助于控制地方政府债务规模扩张和地方政府债务风险。

The paper takes the circulation of quasi-municipal bond of 27 provincial-level administrative areas from 2009 to 2013 as the research object to test the factors influencing the expansion of local government debt size. The study shows that both internal motivators（signaling incentives）and external stress factors（government governance factors）have influences on the expansion of local government debt size. Moreover,the level of corruption is higher and the fiscal transparency is lower, the size of debt is larger;the level of fiscal decentralization is lower,the official promotion incentive is higher and the level of economic development is higher,the size of debt is also larger. Therefore,we need to build uncorrupted and efficient,open and transparent local governments,and play the incentive influence of signal transmission in order to maintain the stability of the debt size. On the other hand,we should improve the government debt management mechanism by optimizing the official age structure,maintaining the sustainable development of regional economy and in order to control the expansion of local government debt size and the risk of local government debt.