相关产出和需求不确定下供应链外包策略

The Outsourcing Strategies Choice under Correlated Yield and Demand Uncertainty

产出不确定是供应链风险管理中的一个重要话题。本文研究了产出不确定和需求不确定相关的情况下竞争企业外包策略选择问题。竞争企业可以采用单源订货或双源订货两种策略。通过两阶段博弈模型刻画了竞争企业的均衡。研究发现当产出不确定与需求不确定之间的相关系数较大且固定订货成本较低时,双源订货是企业的占优策略,竞争企业都选择双源订货策略构成唯一的纳什均衡。当产出不确定与需求不确定之间的相关系数较小且固定订货成本较高时,单源订货是企业的占优策略,竞争企业都选择单源订货策略构成唯一的纳什均衡。论文还给出了存在两个对称的纳什均衡的条件。

Yield uncertainty has become an important research topic in supply chain management. Competing retailers＇ outsourcing strategies in the presence of correlated yield and demand uncertainty are investi- gated. Both retailers can choose dual-source procurement strategies or single-source procurement strategies. A two-stage game theory model is established and the optimal order quantity, the optimal profit and the threshold of fixed cost found out. It is found that dual-source dominates single-source and both retailers use dual-source strategies if the correlation is relatively high and the fixed cost is low. Otherwise, singlesource dominates dual-source and both retailers use single-source strategies. In addition, if the cost is between the two thresholds, there are two symmetric SPNE （subgame perfect Nash equilibrium）.