基于历史文献的华南地区气候变化研究进展

Progress in Research of Climate Change in South China Based on Historical Documents

总结和分析了利用历史文献代用资料重建具有代表性的华南气候序列(包括温度变化和降水/干湿变化序列)的状况,认为华南地区历史时期气候变化研究虽已取得丰硕成果,但存在时间分辨率较低、空间范围宽泛、数据的统一性和可靠性较差,以及缺乏气候变化的相关机制和气候变化周期研究等方面的问题,指出应进一步挖掘华南地区高分辨率气候代用资料(历史文献),提升气候变化研究的时间分辨率和空间覆盖度、加强重建序列的可靠性、增加其周期性和趋势性分析等是解决该地区气候变化研究问题的有效途径。

The research situation of historical climate change research in South China is summarized and analyzed based on the representative archives according to the proxy of historical documents. Temperature change, precipitation and dry/wet change are the main research content. Although plentiful achievements have been gained in the research of historical climate change in South China, there also exist a lot of problems that need to be further studied, such as lower temporal and spatial resolution as compared with that in North China, lower reliability for reconstructed data, lack of research on the related mechanism and variation cycles in climate change, and so on. We suggest that more attention should be paid to improvement of the temporal and spatial resolution, enhancement of the reliability of the data series, increase of the periodicity and trend analysis in historical climate change research in South China by proxy of historical documents with high resolution.