医学装备突发故障预测方法的研究

Research on prediction method of medical equipment sudden fault

目的:对医学装备突发故障预测方法进行研究,以保障远离基地的海上医疗需求。方法:根据医学装备的突发故障数据的表现,对医学装备出现突发故障的时间、随机变量及分布类型进行假设,并对其进行参数估计和分布拟合检验,确定医学装备的突发故障密度函数。结果:基于故障数据分布函数建立医学装备突发故障预测模型,获得医学装备未来一段时间内的突发故障概率。结论:通过医学装备突发故障实例分析,验证了突发故障预测模型的合理性。

Objective： To do research on prediction method of medical equipment sudden fault for the requirement of medical security at sea which is away from base. Methods： Sudden fault data of the medical equipment is a random variable which often manifest as the time of sudden fault happening. The possible distribution type of fault data is hypothesized according to the engineering experience. In order to ensure the sudden fault density function of medical equipment, parameter estimation and distribution fit test are carried out for the fault data. Results： The sudden fault prediction model of medical equipment is established to get the future sudden fault probability of medical equipment based on the distribution function of fault data. Conclusion： The results of case analysis validate the rationality of sudden fault prediction model.