三次指数平滑法在基坑地表沉降变形分析中的应用

Application of Cubic Exponential Smoothing Method in Foundation Pit Ground Settlement Deformation Analysis

根据某地铁车站基坑施工过程中地表沉降监测的实测资料,应用三次平滑指数法进行沉降变形的预测,充分证实了在地表沉降变形分析中该预测法的可行性;研究结果表明:在现有地铁车站基坑地表沉降14期观测数据参与建模条件下,三次指数平滑法与时间序列ARIMA(1,1,1)模型相比,其均方误差MSE较小,模型的预测值与吻合较好,平均残差值为-0.010 1,平均相对误差为-0.219 0,确保了地铁车站的正常施工及安全使用,为后续工程建设提供保障。

Based on the measured data of the surrounding ground settlement in a subway station construction,this paper uses cubic exponential smoothing method to predict the settlement,and the reliability of the method is verified. Research results show the settlement in the existing 14 consecutive days observation data of subway engineering under modeling conditions,compared with time series ARIMA（ 1,1,1） model,the MSE of the cubic exponential smoothing method is smaller. The method is verified available with the average residual error-0.010 1and relative error- 0. 213 9 with better match between predicted value and actual value,ensuring the normal construction and safety of subway station,providing protection for the subsequent project.