气象因子对马铃薯晚疫病病情指数的影响

Effect of Meteorological Factors on Disease Index of Potato Late Blight

马铃薯晚疫病是一种典型的气传性流行病，气候条件是流行的决定因素。为了明确佳木斯地区马铃薯晚疫病发生流行中各个时期气象因子的重要性及相关性，2005～2013年对佳木斯地区马铃薯田的马铃薯晚疫病病情指数进行调查，同时对6～8月份的气象因子进行收集，在此基础上采用通径分析方法进行研究。结果表明，7月份雨雾露天数、7月份降水量、8月份的日照时数对马铃薯晚疫病的病情指数直接影响较强，同时他们之间的互相辅助效果也较强。主要气象因子的确定可以明确最佳喷药时期，避免马铃薯晚疫病的爆发，为马铃薯晚疫病短期预测预报奠定基础。

Potato late blight is one of the typical climate type epidemics, and the climate conditions are decisive factors. In order to clarify the importance and relevance of meteorological factors in the occurrence and development of potato late blight in each period, the disease index of potato late blight and the meteorological information in the period of 2005-2013 was investigated, and analysis was made by using the method of path analysis. The results showed that the days of rain and fog dew and the average precipitation in July, and the average sunshine hours in August had the strongest direct impacts on potato late blight. At the same time, their mutual interaction effects were also obvious. The best spraying period could be determined using the main meteorological factors to avoid the outbreak of potato late blight. This research lays the foundation for the prediction of potato late blight in short-term.