低丘缓坡建设开发综合生态风险评价及发展权衡——以大理白族自治州为例

Integrated ecological risk assessment and spatial development trade-offs in low-slope hilly land:A case study in Dali Bai Autonomous Prefecture, China

综合考虑低丘缓坡开发区域自然生态风险及开发建设生态风险,构建了低丘缓坡开发综合生态风险评价框架;并以大理白族自治州为例,基于地质灾害胁迫、土壤侵蚀胁迫定量表征自然生态风险概率,基于污染累积胁迫、资源耗竭胁迫、空间占用胁迫定量表征开发建设生态风险概率,结合生态重要性定量评价低丘缓坡建设开发综合生态风险并探究其空间分布特征;最后结合现状建设开发强度,实现了流域尺度的发展权衡分区。结果表明,就整体区域而言,综合生态风险高值区主要集中在洱海地区以及巍山、弥渡和南涧等县;从用地类型上来说,水域综合生态风险最高,而建设用地最低,林地综合生态风险也较高,但随着离建设用地距离的增大而减小;基于剖面线分析,大理市综合生态风险空间变异受土地利用结构的海拔分异及其与人类活动作用距离等显著影响;由于山脉阻隔,大理州综合生态风险表现出比较明显的区域封闭性。结合现状建设开发强度,在流域尺度上将大理州划分为保护优先区(高风险—高开发)、开发优先区(低风险—低开发)、保护权衡区(高风险—低开发)和开发权衡区(低风险—高开发)四类发展权衡区域,并根据生态风险特征差异,提出建设开发策略,以期为低丘缓坡建设开发生态风险防范及发展权衡提供科学指引。

Low-slope hilly land is one of the most important construction and development resources in China, where hilly area is much more than the flat ground. The construction process can be very difficult as the complex terrain and sensitive eco-environment of the hilly land, where eco-environmental problems may take place due to unreasonable human development. An ecological risk assessment conceptual framework of low-slope hilly land has been built by taking account of natural ecological risk probability, development ecological risk probability as well as ecological importance. In detail, natural ecological risk probability contains geological disaster stress and soil erosion stress, while the development ecological risk consists of pollution accumulated stress, resource depletion stress and space occupation stress. Then a conceptual framework has been applied in the ecological risk assessment of Dali Bai Autonomous Prefecture, a representative region of low-slope hilly city construction areas in Yunnan Province, China. In this study, firstly, the quantitative and spatial patterns of the influence factors were analyzed separately and then the integrated ecological risk probability was graded into 5 degrees. Secondly, the spatial pattern of integrated ecological risk and its relationship with land use types has been analyzed. Finally, 383 watersheds were classified into four categories, namely development priority area, protection priority area, development balance area and protection balance area according to the grade of integrated ecological risk and grade of development status. The guidance and advice for future development has also been proposed for low-slope hilly construction in Dali Prefecture.