Gompertz增长曲线方程的参数估计及对初始预报值的优化

Parameter estimation of Gompertz growth curve equation and optimization for initial predicted values

对Gompertz增长曲线方程参数估计进行研究,运用双向差分误差平方、最小估计法和双向差分广义加权最小二乘估计法对模型参数进行估计,并对初始预测值进行优化。从定量的角度为进一步研究、分析Gompertz增长曲线方程提供了新思路,并将文中方法运用到传染病疫情实例中。

Parameter estimation of Gompertz growth curve equation was studied with the two direction difference methods of minimum error square estimation and the generalized weighted least square estimation,meanwhile,some optimization was done for the selection of the initial predicted values to improve the fitting accuracy. This provides a new way from the view of quantification to research and analysze Gompertz growth curve equation. Finally,the method was used in an example of infectious disease model.