纯电动公交车推广的综合效益与可行性分析

Comprehensive benefits and feasibility analysis to popularize pure-electric buses

随着资源消耗及城市污染问题日益严重,电动汽车的发展受到了越来越多的关注,而纯电动公交车作为中国电动汽车推广的第一步,其在市场中的综合效益与可行性具有非常重要的研究价值。基于中国纯电动公交车的发展背景与现状,通过构建生命周期成本模型和燃料生命周期法评价其经济和能源环境效益。结果表明,纯电动公交车当前的生命周期成本仍不具备较强的市场竞争力,未来其能耗经济性将会显著提升;而中国高达78%的煤电比例极大降低了纯电动公交车的能源环境效益,这也是中国要真正实现节能减排而非污染转移需考虑的问题。对公交企业的动态模拟运营结果揭示,第1周期由于初期投资成本过高,第8年仍会亏损56.12万元;而基于市场激励机制的角度分析,实现盈亏平衡的最高票面价格为1.58元。因此,起步阶段政府补贴和政策扶持很有必要,但纯电动公交车在中国的成熟发展最终还是要通过政府和市场的协同激励来实现。

As the problem of resource consumption and urban pollution is increasingly serious, the development of electric vehicles has attracted more and more attention. So as the first step of popularizing electric vehicles in Chi- na, the comprehensive benefits and feasibility analysis of pure-electric buses has significant research value. Based on the development background and current situation of the pure-electric bus in China, this study evaluated its economic, energy and environmental benefits through establishing life cycle cost model and fuel life cycle analysis. The results showed that the life cycle cost of the pure-electric bus still lacked market competitiveness and its energy efficiency would increase obviously in the future. The situation where the proportion of coal-generated electricity was high up to 78% in China greatly reduced its energy and environmental benefits. This was also a problem we must take into the consideration to achieve energy saving and emission reduction rather than pollution diversion. The findings of dynamic simulate operation revealed that because of the high initial investment cost in the first running cycle the enterprise would still lose 561 200 Yuan in the last year. What＇s more, the par value to achieve breakeven was 1.58 Yuan based on the market incentives. To sum up, it is necessary for government to provide subsidies and support in the early stage, while the maturational development of pure-electric buses in China eventually depends on the collaborative mo- tivation of government and market.