北京市产业结构调整及技术进步与节能的动态关系

Dynamic Relationships Among Industrial Structure,Technological Progress and Energy Saving in Beijing

为了建立环境友好的能源结构与健全节能的保障机制,运用指数分解法对北京市1996—2010年的节能量进行了计算与静态分解,在此基础上以单位GDP能耗作为北京市能源消费水平和节能降耗状况的主要指标,通过建立产业结构调整-技术进步-单位GDP能耗的VAR（vector autoregression,向量自回归）模型,以及脉冲响应和方差分解,论述三者间的动态关系;利用北京市2011─2013年实际单位GDP能耗对VAR模型进行校验,模型计算误差在5%以下.结果表明：北京市在＂九五＂期间产业结构调整节能贡献大,占总节能量的55.60%,其主要依托第二、三产业间的结构调整;而在＂十五＂和＂十一五＂期间,技术进步节能量分别占同期总节能量的81.35%、85.41%.单位GDP能耗、产业结构节能、技术进步节能对单位GDP能耗的方差贡献率分别为13%、39%和48%.产业结构调整和技术进步对单位GDP能耗均产生周期性的影响,每个周期为5.0 a,影响逐渐减弱,2个周期后趋于零.其中,产业结构调整后的前2.5 a对单位GDP能耗的影响较显著,其中尤以第2年最为明显;技术进步后的3.0~5.0 a对单位GDP能耗的影响显著,尤以第3年最为明显,具有2.0 a的滞后期.因此,应结合产业结构调整和技术进步对单位GDP能耗影响的特征,对其节能效果做出科学评价,并应用于实际政策制订.

In order to establish an eco-friendly energy structure and a comprehensive energy saving system and adapt to the long-term goal of sustainable development,the index decomposition model was utilized to calculate and analyze the influence of structure and efficiency on energy saving from 1996 to 2010 in Beijing. The energy consumption per unit of GDP was used as an important indicator of energy consumption and energy saving in Beijing. The vector autoregression（ VAR） model was developed,through incorporating the impulse response analysis and variance decomposition,to analyze the dynamic relationship among the industrial structure（ i. e.,the amount of energy saving due to structural adjustment）,efficiency（ i. e.,the amount of energy saving due to technological progress） and energy consumption per unit of GDP in Beijing. The VAR model was validated using the actual energy consumption per unit of GDP in Beijing from 2011 to 2013,and the error was found to be lower than 5%. The results showed that during 1996-2000,industrial structural adjustment played the most important role in energy saving,accounting for 55. 60% of the total energy saving,mainly relying on the adjustment between the secondary and tertiary industries.In contrast, the energy saving resulting from technological progress was larger during 2001-2005 and 2006-2010,accounting for 81. 35% and 85. 41% during these two five-year plan periods,respectively. The variance contributions of the energy consumptionper unit of GDP,industrial structural adjustment and technological progress to the energy consumption per unit of GDP were 13%,39%and 48%,respectively. Moreover,both the industrial structural adjustment and the technological progress had a five-year periodic impact on energy saving,although this impact gradually weakened and vanished after a decade. The industrial structural adjustment mainly affected the energy consumption per unit of GDP during the first two and half years,in particular over the second year; however,technological progress played a dominant role in the energy consumption per unit of GDP from the third to fifth year,in particular over the third year,with a two-year delay. Thus,the evaluation of the effects of industrial structural adjustment and technological progress on energy saving should take into consideration the different impact of industrial structural adjustment and technological progress on energy consumption per unit of GDP.