危旧房改造增值评估——实物期权方法

Evaluation of the Value Added from Old Building Renovation: A Real Option Approach

为了加大住房保障,中央政府高度重视棚户区改造,全国各地面对繁重的改造任务,普遍面临的难题是资金短缺,影响项目推进。本文采用实物期权方法对危旧房改造后的增值部分进行评估,构造了更符合市场变化情况的三叉树图实物期权定价模型,并以杭州市旧房改造项目为例,进行了实证研究。提出棚户区改造要变传统"拆、建"为主的模式为"建改并重"的有机更新模式,对改造期权价值大于零的项目应鼓励被改造小区的住户承担一部分改造费用,这不但有利于加快改善居民居住条件,而且体现了社会公平。

In order to promote the supply of affordable housing, China＇ s central governmentattaches great importance to the renovation of shantytowns. Most shantytowns lack reliable sanitation services, public transportation, complete infrastructure, timely law enforcement and other basic services, while the buildings there are mostly dilapidated buildings with poor-quality. Therefore they are unfit for human habitation, and the renovation is imperative. The heavy renovation workload across the country and the capital shortage, however, be- come a common obstacle of local governments in their efforts to launch renovation projects. This paper applies the real option analysis ap- proach to estimate the value added from old building renovation, and presents an explicit numerical method of the trinomial tree real op- tion pricing model. Finally, the ease of ＂Wu Liu Xiang＂ in Hangzhou is selected for an empirical analysis. We introduce the new comprehensive renovation mode of ＂preservation as the main measure, incorporating reconstruction and modification＂ which replaces the traditional ＂old city reconstruction＂ mode which is building new after pulling down the old ones, and encourage the residents to bear a part of the retrofitting costs, which will improve the residents＇ living conditions, and facilitate social equity as well.