城市扩张、对外贸易与经济增长的关系——以广西为例

Relation between urban expansion,foreign trade and economic growth:taking Guangxi for example

利用广西1987-2013年的时间序列数据,以人口城市化和空间城市化作为广西城市扩张的指标,采用VAR模型,实证研究了城市扩张、对外贸易与经济增长之间的长期动态关系。结果表明:三者之间存在长期均衡关系,且空间城市化对经济增长的促进作用较大,对外贸易和空间城市化与经济增长之间均互为因果关系,但人口城市化不是对外贸易及经济增长的格兰杰原因。随后进行了对人口城市化和经济增长的库兹涅茨曲线关系的分析,发现二者的坐标曲线呈倒U型关系。

Using the time series data of Guangxi from 1987 to 2013, and adopting population urbanization and spatial urbanization as the index of urban expansion, V this essay studies empirically on the dynamic relationships among them with AR model. The results show that there is the long - term equilibrium relation among them, and spatial urbanization has greater effect on economic growth. It is also found that there is a causal relationship among foreign trade, spatial urbanization and economic growth, but population urbanization is not the Granger cause of foreign trade and economic growth. Furthermore, it is found that the curve is inverted U - shaped by studying the Kuznets curve of the population urbanization and economic growth.