赤潮灾害风险评估方法研究——以辽宁近岸海域为例

Assessment Methods of Red Tide Disaster Risk:a Case in Liaoning Coast

以赤潮灾害风险理论为依据,结合辽宁沿海城市近70年长期赤潮灾害历史资料数据,建立了辽宁近岸赤潮灾害风险评估指标体系,运用熵权法及层次分析法分析指标权重,构建了危险度指数、承灾体脆弱性指数灾害风险评价模型,最后,利用自然灾害风险分级矩阵方法进行灾害风险分级。风险评估结果显示,辽宁沿海城市大连市属于极高风险等级,丹东市、营口市、葫芦岛市属于中风险等级,盘锦市和锦州市处于较低风险等级。评价结果与近十年赤潮灾害历史统计数据基本吻合,该方法的建立对辽宁近岸海域赤潮灾害风险界定及防治具有重要意义。

A disaster risk index and vulnerability index evaluation model, a red tide disaster risk evaluation index system, is established by theory of red tide disaster risk as one of the main marine disasters in China, by entropy method and analytic hierarchy process （AHP） and by red tide disaster data in Liaoning coastal cities in the past 70 years to determine the index weight, and to make disaster risk classification. The risk assessment results revealed that Dalian was within a high level of risk; Dandong, Yingkou and Huludao were found in the medium level of risk, while Panjin and Jinzhou belong to the low level of risk. The evaluation results are primarily consistent with red tide disasters statistics data in past ten years, indicating that this method is significance for red tide disaster risk definition and prevention in Liaoning coastal cities.