基于期望安全车距的车辆跟驰行为分析与仿真

Car-following behavior analysis and simulation based on expectation safety distance

为解释实际道路交通流中的跟车距离差异,引入期望及参照点理论,提出期望安全车距(ESD)概念,分析其主要影响因素。采用C#编程模拟车辆跟驰行为,以跟车距离的试验值作为ESD的代表值,从横向角度考察ESD的个体差异,分析性别及实际驾龄对ESD的影响,并采用单因素方差分析(ANOVA)方法对比分析不同驾驶类型间的差异。数据显示:驾驶人ESD的个体差异较大,性别对ESD有一定影响,实际驾龄对ESD的影响无明显规律。ANOVA分析表明:驾驶类型对ESD有极大影响(P<0.001)。ESD是驾驶人判断车距是否安全的参考点,是导致实际跟车距离存在差异的主要原因。

For the sake of explaining car-following distance differences in the actual road traffic flow,expectancy theory and reference point theory were introduced,then a concept of ESD was proposed and main factors affecting ESD were analyzed. Car-following behavior was simulated by C# computer programming. Experimental value of car-following distance was used as the representative value of ESD. Individual differences in ESD were examined. Influences of gender and actual driving experience on ESD were analyzed. Differences among different driving types were analyzed by one-way ANOVA method. The data show that ESD varies obviously among individual drivers,gender has some influence on ESD,and that the influence of actual driving experience on ESD has no obvious rule. The ANOVA result shows that driving type has a very significant influence on ESD（ P〈0. 001）,and that ESD is a reference point for drivers to judge whether the vehicle distance is safe,and the main cause for differences in actual car-following distance.