上市公司盈余信息披露的跟随行为研究

Research on Following Behavior of Earnings Information Disclosure in Listed Companies

以2011年至2013年我国沪深A股上市公司为样本数据,实证研究发现龙头公司是否达到分析师的预期与跟随公司盈余管理具有相关性。当龙头公司披露的EPS达到或超过分析师预测值时,跟随公司的盈余管理程度较高。当龙头公司披露的EPS没有达到分析师的预测值时,跟随公司的盈余管理程度相对较低,跟随公司不太可能调高盈余信息。这是因为:龙头公司报告的盈余信息会影响投资者及其他利益相关者对公司业绩表现的心理预期,行业龙头企业为行业本年度的业绩表现"定了调子",跟随公司会参照行业龙头公司的业绩表现进行盈余管理。

By taking the date of Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listed companies during 2011~2013as the example,in this empirical study,we found that whether the leader meets analyst＇forecasts or not will affect the earnings management of followers.When the leader meets analysts＇ expectations,followers have a high degree of earnings management.When the leader misses analysts＇ expectations,followers have a low degree of earnings management,followers are less likely to manage earnings upward.Because earnings news of the leader will affect investors＇ and others＇ performance expectations for their firms,leaders＂set the tone＂for the industry,so they would depend on the leader firm to manage the earnings.