用新一代天气雷达评估火箭人工影响天气作业的一种新方法

A New Way to Evaluate the Artificial Precipitation Enhancement by Rockets Using CINRAD Data

通过利用新一代天气雷达不同仰角层的探测资料，结合气象探空资料，提出一种对人工增雨作业效果进行物理评估的新方法，且对广西宾阳县的一个人工增雨作业点进行了作业效果分析。结果表明，根据当地的温度分布特点，选取与雷达站距离适宜的作业点，采用新一代天气雷达不同仰角层的探测资料，分析其中冷、暖温区中云层的回波变化，可以获取由于催化引起云中物理变化信息。在对冷云催化后，2．4°、3．4°等较高仰角层的回波变化曲线比0．5°和1．5°低仰角回波增强迅速。在分析的4个个例中，在催化11～30min后，冷区的回波开始明显增强，而暖区回波的发展相对滞后，可以反映出在冷层催化后，由于消耗过冷水，促使冰雪粒子增长，之后随着冰雪晶降落融化，在暖层与云雨滴碰并，导致低层暖区回波增强。在云系的不同发展阶段实施催化作业，其所产生的效果也不同。在云系的维持阶段早期实施作业，可以使云系维持更长时间，而在消散阶段实施作业，虽然催化可使上层冷区云系维持更长时间，但改变不了云系总体减弱的趋势。

By using the data of CINRAD in various elevation angles, joining with the meteorological data, this paper provides a new physical method to evaluate the artificial precipitation enhancement, and to study the operational cases taken in Binyang County, Guangxi. It shows that the physical changing information of cloud caused by catalyst can be obtained by analyzing the CINRAD data in various elevation angles in the cold and warm region in clouds, combining with the vertical temperature distribution, and the distance selection to the radar cite. After the see- ding in the supercooled cloud, the reflection curses in the elevation angles of 2.4 and 3.4 degree may be more rapid in reaching the summit than that of 0.5 and 1.5 degree. In the 4 cases studies, in 11 - 30 minutes after seeding, echoes in cold region began to enhance obviously, and meanwhile, echoes in warm region developed in somehow delay which reflects that after seeding, the exhaustion of supercooled water promotes the development of ice and snow crystals , melting as they are falling, and collision with the cloud-drops and rain-drops in the warm region, which leading to the echoes enhancement in the warm region. Cloud seeding in various stages of development may cause various effects. Seeding in the early stage may lead to the more long lasting of the cloud, while seeding in the dissipating stage, it may not alter the trend of weakening, in a whole, though seeding may expand the cloud life in the cold region.