基于面板数据的河南省碳排放影响因素实证研究

Analysis on carbon emissions factors in technological and economic development of Henan

以河南省碳排放为研究对象,从三次产业消耗的三类一次能源角度、基于STIRPAT模型、运用面板数据和个体固定效应模型,分析2000—2013年产业结构、人均GDP及能源强度对河南省碳排放的影响。研究发现:产业综合人均GDP和能源强度对碳排放量有显著的正向影响,而产业结构对碳排放量有负向影响。然而第一产业人均GDP和第三产业人均GDP与河南省碳排放量呈负相关关系,只有第二产业人均GDP是推高碳排放量的主要因素,与此同时,减少第二产业比例及降低第二产业能源强度对于碳排放具有抑制作用。

Carbon emission influence in Henan was analyzed on technological and economic growth from 2000-2013.STIRPAT model was used in the analysis with panel data and cross-section fixed effect model.Primary energy （ three forms） and industrial structure （ three typies） were specified as independent variables in the pan-el data.The results show that industry compositive per capital GDP and energy intensity have significant positive influence on carbon emissions, but industrial structure has the opposite effect on carbon emissions.Per capital GDP of the first industry and the third industry have negative impact on carbon emissions in Henan.Hence, it can be concluded that per capital GDP of the secondary industry is the most important factor for carbon emis-sions increasing in Henan.Lowering the proportion and the energy intensity of secondary industry may contrib-ute to reducing carbon emissions.