制度变迁对中国经济增长质量的非线性效应分析

Nonlinear Effect of Institutional Change on the Quality of China's Economic Growth

本文构建包括经济结构、科技与创新、民生、资源与环境、对外开放等5个二级指标和23个基础指标的经济增长质量评价指标体系,采用主成分分析方法测算中国经济增长质量指数。1997年以来中国经济增长质量总体上呈上升趋势,本文探讨了制度变迁对经济增长质量的作用机理,基于1997—2010年省级面板数据,采用双重面板门槛模型实证研究制度变迁对经济增长质量的非线性效应,发现制度变迁对中国经济增长质量的影响与地区国民生产总值有关。具体而言,对于中等发达地区而言,制度变迁对经济增长质量具有显著的正向影响;对于欠发达地区和发达地区而言,制度变迁与经济增长质量呈负相关,制度变迁并不利于经济增长质量的提高。

The paper sets up an index system to evaluate the quality of China＇s economic growth.The index,system is composed of five first-lever indexes which include economic structure,technology and innovation,people＇s livelihood, resource and environment,and opening up to the outside,as well as 23 basic indexes.The paper also evaluates the index of China＇s economic growth quality by using principal components analysis,and the results show that China＇s economic growth quality have presented a rising tendency since 1997.On this base,the paper analyzes the action mechanism of institutional change on the quality of economic growth,and based on the panel data of the year 1997 to 2010,sets up a double panel threshold model to evaluate the nonlinear effect of institutional change on China＇s economic growth quality.It is found that the influence of institutional change on China＇s economic growth quality relates to regional GDP.Specifically,to the middle development provinces,institutional change has a significant positive effect on the economic growth quality.However,to the poor and rich provinces,institutional change has a negative effect on the economic growth quality,and institutional change do not have advantage to improve economic growth quality.