考虑不完全保护的复杂系统可靠性评估

Reliability Evaluation of Complex System with Imperfect Protections

鉴于已有研究在处理由部件失效传播引起的共因失效的复杂系统可靠性评估问题时存在的缺陷,借鉴元胞自动机并行计算的优势以及蒙特卡罗模拟技术在处理复杂问题中的灵活性,提出了一种基于元胞自动机思想的蒙特卡罗模拟方法,该方法考虑了不完全保护对系统可靠性产生的影响,不受系统结构、部件数目的限制。最后,通过两个算例分别说明了该方法的正确性以及在可靠性分析中的具体应用。

Because of the drawbacks of current researches when dealing with the problems of evaluating the reliability o{ a complex system containing components with propagated failures, a cellular automata-based Monte Carlo simulation algorithm was presented to deal with the complex problems, which combined the advantages of parallel computing of cellular automata and the flexibility of Monte Carlo simulation technology. The proposed algorithm considered the influences of imperfect protections on system reliability and overcame the limitations of system structure and the number of components. Finally, two given examples illustrated the validity of the proposed algorithm respectively and the method to analyze system reliability.