基于零利率下限约束的宏观政策传导研究

Operation Mechanism of Macro-policy Based on Zero Lower Bound

本文构建了一个包含零利率下限约束的DSGE模型,在市场出清的条件下,通过数理建模、脉冲响应分析与仿真模拟的技术手段,分有零利率下限约束与无零利率下限约束两种情况,对比研究了由货币政策与财政政策组成的宏观调控体系的实施效果。结论显示:当名义利率触及零利率下限时,经济会出现剧烈波动;无零利率下限约束的模型不能充分描绘真实的金融危机状况与政策效果;在受到零利率下限约束的超低利率环境中,常规货币政策的有效性将进一步降低,而财政政策的促进作用非常稳定,并基于此提出了相关的政策建议。

This paper establishes a DSGE model including zero lower bound under the assumption of markets clearing. By means of mathematical modeling, impulse response analysis and simulation, we compare the transmission mechanism of macro-policy composed of monetary and fiscal policy with and without zero lower bound. The conclusions show that when interest rates are constrained by the zero lower bound, the volatility of economic variables increase considerably, and model without zero lower bound can＇t depict the economic situation and policy effect in the crisis; while under the zero lower bound, the effectiveness of monetary policy is further reduced, and the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus is quite stable. Finally the related policy proposal is put forward.