新常态下中国天然气勘探开发战略思考

China's natural gas exploration and development strategies under the new normal

近10年来,中国天然气工业获得了跨越式发展;但从2014年下半年以来,油价大幅下跌,全球油气市场疲软。与此同时,中国经济增速放缓,资源环境约束趋紧,能源生产与消费革命加快推进,天然气产业发展的内、外部条件也正在发生着深刻的变化。基于对近期我国天然气工业快速发展成绩的回顾和对未来发展形势的分析,认为中国天然气产量和消费量增速将双双趋缓,供需基本面呈现出宽松态势;低渗透致密、深层-超深层和非常规储层将成为天然气勘探开发的主要对象,资源劣质化趋势难以改变;油价持续低迷和替代能源价格大幅下降将使得气价下行的压力增大;严格控制投资和大幅降低成本将成为提升效益的常态化手段。针对新常态,提出了中国天然气勘探开发的5点建议:①始终坚持加强勘探,确保工作量和投资到位,不断夯实发展基础;②高度重视开发前期评价,突出方案部署设计,把握产能建设节奏;③抓好老气田开发调整顶层设计,突出精细描述和管理,提升整体开发水平;④加大勘探开发技术攻关力度,突出技术的简化和实用性,有效降低成本;⑤全面总结天然气工业快速发展的经验,突出关键指标论证及设计,加强滚动规划研究。

China＇s natural gas industry has experienced a great leap-forward development in the past decade. Since the second half of 20]4, however, international oil price has dropped sharply and global oil and gas markets have been sluggish. In China, economy growth rate slows down and resource environments tend to be more restricted. And energy production and consumption revolution speed up, and the development of natural gas industry experience profound changes internally and externally. Through review on the achievements in recent high-speed development and analysis on the future development of China＇s natural gas industry, it is believed that the growth rates of China＇s natural gas output and consumption will slow down and the supply and demand fundamentals present loose state. Low-permeability tight, deep-extra deep and unconventional reservoirs will be the principal targets of natural gas explora- tion and development and the tendency of resource deterioration is inevitable. The pressure to the decrease of gas price rises due to the sustained recession of oil price and the sharp decrease of alternative energy price. The normal means to increase benefits is to con- trol investment strictly and reduce cost greatly. As for the new normal, five suggestions were proposed for natural gas exploration and development in China. Firstly, reinforce exploration continuously by guaranteeing work load and investment at the required lev- el, and tamp the development basis. Secondly, pay much attention to early development evaluation, give prominence to plan imple- mentation design and control productivity construction rhythm. Thirdly, pay attention to the top-level design of mature gas field de- velopment and adjustment, with fine description and management as the priority, and improve overall development level. Fourthly, strengthen the researches on exploration and development technologies, with the simplification and practicability of technologies as the focus, and reduce the cost effectively. And fifthly, summarize the experience of high-speed development of natural gas industry, pay attention to the demonstration and design of key indicators, and strengthen the study on progressive planning.