油气价格与LNG汽车市场需求关系的实证研究——以四川省为例

The relationship between oil/gas prices and LNG vehicle market demands:A case study from Sichuan Province

燃料价格是影响清洁燃料汽车市场发展的一个重要因素,正确认识液化天然气汽车市场需求与燃料价格之间的关系,对于各地区制定LNG汽车发展战略具有重要的作用。为此,利用弹性理论中的需求价格弹性模型,以CNG的实际数据为参考,分别通过静态对数线性需求模型和动态对数线性需求模型分析了四川省2005-2013年的车用天然气价格与天然气汽车需求量之间的关系。结果表明:①在政府价格规制的情况下,天然气汽车的需求价格弹性为-0.017 2,表现为缺乏弹性;②在无价格规制且考虑用户价格变动响应滞后的情况下,天然气汽车的短期需求价格弹性和长期需求价格弹性分别为0.119和0.134,表现为缺乏弹性,这与被广泛认可的天然气市场具有缺乏短期价格弹性而富有长期价格弹性的特点有所不同;③价格规制抑制了四川省天然气汽车市场的发展;④柴油车用户的LNG价格承受能力即将达到上限。最后提出建议:进一步深化天然气价格改革,建立并切实实施科学合理的天然气价格与替代能源价格联动机制,借鉴CNG汽车发展经验,加强产业引导,加大扶持力度和宣传力度,加快配套设施建设,完善管理和运行机制,以促进LNG汽车市场的快速发展。

The fuel price is one important factor influencing the development of clean fuel vehicle markets, so it is crucial to under- stand accurately the relationship between LNG vehicle market demand and fuel price, so that LNG vehicle development strategies in each area can be formulated rationally. In this paper, a case study was conducted on Sichuan Province. Based on the demand price e- lasticity model of elasticity theories and the real CNG data, analysis was conducted on the relationship between automotive natural gas prices and natural gas vehicle demands in Sichuan Province from 2005 through 2013 by means of static and dynamic log linear de- mand models. And conclusions are as follows. Firstly, under government price rules and regulations, the demand price elasticity of natural gas vehicles is --0.0172, in the category of elasticity shortage. Secondly, short-term and long-term demand price elasticity of natural gas vehicles are 0.119 and 0.134 respectively, in the category of elasticity shortage, if there is no price rules and regulations and laggard user price change response is taken into consideration. However, it is different from the characteristics that integrated natural gas is short in short-term price elasticity and rich in long-term price elasticity. Thirdly, the development of natural gas vehicle markets in Sichuan Province is inhibited by the price rules and regulations. And fourthly, affordability of LNG price will soon reach the upper limit for the users of diesel powered vehicles. It was suggested to deepen natural gas price reform further, establish practical and rational interactive systems of natural gas price and alternative energy price. It is necessary to strengthen industry guidance, reinforce support and propaganda, speed up supporting facility construction and perfect management and operation mechanisms in reference to the development experience of CNG vehicles, so as to promote the fast development of LNG vehicle markets.