世界各国天然气出口能力及中国境外投资选择

World natural gas export capacities and China's overseas investment options

为了多维度地掌握世界天然气供应能力及变化趋势,给我国的天然气进口及境外投资合作提供更准确的选择角度和依据,基于BP 2015年生产交易数据和IMF经济数据,采取3种方式进行综合分析,以寻找、比较、发现各国包含的机会和风险:①根据时间序列数据分析全球陆上管道气与LNG出口趋势;②根据横截面各项数据对天然气生产国进行分项排名,最后按算术平均值确定综合排名;③对主要国家天然气政策及出口前景进行分析预测。结果表明:①2005-2014年,天然气出口量的增长趋势受经济形势影响较大,LNG在全球贸易中的比重由26%上升至33.4%,天然气全球化趋势不可逆转;②在全球天然气主要生产国生产和出口能力方面,美洲、欧洲及欧亚大陆国家、中东、非洲以及亚洲各有其特点;③市场化呈上升的趋势,美国未来天然气出口前景较乐观,不同政策和国情影响出口能力。结论认为,中国目前对进口目标国或天然气生产和投资目标国的选择总的来说是合理的。

In order to know well about the global natural gas supply t.v j e, tion viewpoints and basis for China＇s natural gas import and overseas investment cooperation, three methods were adopted for com- prehensive analysis to search for, compare and find out the opportunities and challenges of each country, based on BP production and transaction data in 2015 and IMF economic data. Firstly, the export tendency of global onshore pipeline gas and LNG was analyzed on the basis of time series data. Secondly, natural gas production counties were comprehensively ranked according to the arithmetic means of partial ranking values which were obtained on the basis of each data of the cross sections. And thirdly, analysis and predic tion were conducted on the natural gas policies and export outlook of the major countries. It is shown that the increasing tendency of natural gas export volume during 2005 - 2014 was more influenced by economic situations and the proportion of LNG in global trade from 26%, indicating irreversible tendency of natural gas globalization. As {or the natural gas production and export rose to 33.4% major countries in different continents and areas present distinct characteristics. And the marketization is in the tend- capacities, the ency of ascent. American natural gas export will be relatively optimistic in the future and its export capacity is influenced by national policies and conditions. It is concluded that China has made a rational selection on gas import target countries or natural gas produc- tion and investment target countries.