基于风险区划的农作物保险精细化费率厘定研究——以河南省县级小麦保险纯费率厘定为例

A Study on Setting Crop Insurance Premium Rate Based on Risk Zoning——With Henan net premium rate setting for Wheat Insurance at the county level as an example

尽管2007年以来我国的农业保险发展迅速，并已经成为继美国之后的全球第二大农业保险市场，但与美国相比，我国的农业保险实践却相对粗糙，尤其在风险区划和费率分区方面，差距仍十分遥远。依据区域内农作物风险水平的差异性制定相应的保险费率，能够有效化解农业保险中的道德风险和逆向选择问题。本文运用1990～2013年河南省各市、县小麦单产、面积、农业保险赔付率、水利设施、灾情数据，在河南省市级风险区划的基础上完成了县域小麦生产风险区划。同时结合非参数核密度估计法完成了河南省市、县级区域小麦保险纯费率的厘定，为未来以小麦保险差别化费率为基础的技术升级提供了必要的精算支持。

The development of agricultural insurance in China has been rapid since 2007, and China has become the world＇s second largest agricultural insurance market after the United States. But compared with America,China＇s agricultural insurance practice is quite unsophisticated, especially in the areas of risk zoning and rate zoning where the gap is conspicuous. The crop premium rate should be consistent with the actual risk level in the area, which can overcome moral hazard and adverse selection effectively. By using the data of unit wheat yields, acreage, agricultural insurance loss ratio, water conservancy facilities and disaster data of cities and counties in Henan province from 1990 to 2013, the county-level wheat production risk are divided into different risk zones using cluster analysis. Nonparametric kernel density estimation is used to estimate the net premium rate of municipal and county-level wheat insurance.which can orovide the necessarv actuarial technical support for technique ungrades based on differ-entiated wheat insurance rating.