对外直接投资对中国产业结构升级的实证研究:基于产业间和产业内升级的检验

Empirical Research on the Effects of ODI on the Upgrading of Chinese Industrial Structure

本文考察了对外直接投资对中国产业结构升级的影响。笔者首先阐明对外投资引致产业升级的三大作用机理,即:边际产业转移、产业关联和反向技术外溢效应。在实证部分,运用两个层次的数据展开分析,首先是采用了2003—2012年间30个省、自治区、直辖市的面板数据,实证检验对外直接投资的产业间升级效应,结果显示,对外直接投资显著地促进了各地区的产业结构优化。进一步对2003—2012年间第二产业和第三产业内部各细分行业进行研究。研究发现,对外直接投资并没有促进第二和第三产业内的生产率提升,即对外投资的产业内升级效应尚未显示。在运用代理指标、sys-GMM方法重新进行估计后,上述结果依然稳健。

This paper examines the effects of ODI on the upgrading of Chinese industrial structure. Firstly,we explain the three role mechanisms of ODI on industrial upgrading: that is,marginal industrial transfer,industrial relevance and reverse technology spillovers. In empirical part,we conduct analysis by the data of two layers. Firstly,we empirically test the inter-industry upgrading effect of ODI by using 30 provinces,autonomous regions and municipalities from 2003 to 2012. The results show that ODI significantly promotes the industrial structure optimization of each region. Then,we study the segmented sectors inside the primary industry and secondary industry from 2003 to 2012 and find that ODI has not promoted the productivity of the primary industry and secondary industry,that is,the intra-industry upgrading effect of ODI has not been indicated. The above results are still robust after reestimating by using surrogate indicators and sys-GMM.