2014年10月11—13日呼伦贝尔市寒潮天气过程分析

Analysis on the Cold Wave Weather Process on October 11—13th, 2014 in Hulun Buir City

文章利用Micaps资料、数值预报场,采用天气学原理和天气动力学诊断分析方法,对呼伦贝尔市2014年10月11—13日寒潮天气过程进行分析和总结。结果表明:此次寒潮天气过程出现在黑海、里海高脊东移,新西伯利亚冷空气东移至贝加尔湖,受鄂霍次克海高脊阻挡,冷空气在此堆积,贝加尔湖低槽明显加深,台风北上使鄂霍次克海高脊逐渐减弱,贝加尔湖低槽迅速东移,引导冷空气东移南下,造成了此次寒潮天气过程。强盛的冷平流是造成气温下降的主要原因,但降水的潜热释放及地面长波辐射对气温升降起到辅助作用。降水开始于冷锋前部的暖区一侧气旋中,冷锋过后降水转变为雨夹雪或雪,较大降水落区在气旋顶部或后部。T639、ECWMF数值模式提前对形势场做出了较准确的预报。比较而言,以ECWMF模式预报性能较好。

In this paper, taking the cold wave weather process as the research object on October 11-13 th, 2014 in Hulun Buir city,using the Micaps data, the numerical forecasting field, adopting the synoptic meteorology theory and diagnostic analysis method prin-ciple of the weather dynamics, the cold wave weather process was analyzed and summarized. The results showed that： the cold wave weather process caused by the cold wave weather process occurred high ridges moving to east in the Black Sea, Caspian Sea, Novosi-birsk cold air moving to east to Baikal, the cold air was trapped in the zone, Lake Baikal low vortex was deepened obviously, the ty-phoon northward had the Okhotsk High Ridge gradually collapsed, the low trough in Lake Baikal rapidly eastward, guided the cold air eastward the south.The main cause of temperature drop was the puissant cold advection, but the latent heat release of precipitation and surface long wave radiation played a supporting role in temperature rising and the falling. The precipitation began in cyclone that in one side of warm area in front of the clod front, changed to sleet or snow after cold front, the larger rainfall area was in cyclone top or rear. T639, ECWMF numerical model made more accurate prediction to the situation fields ahead. The prediction performance of ECWMF model was better compared with else models.