近65年来中国冬季气温的变化研究

Research on the Change of Winter Temperatures in China for the Past Sixty-five Years

利用中国160测站的冬季平均气温数据分析了其变化的主要特征,研究表明:EOF分析的第一模态说明中国冬季气温具有很好的一致性,即全国一致降温或增暖,第二模态分布表明中国冬季气温具有南北反向的变化特征;REOF第一空间模态侧重于长江中下游、华南地区的冬季气温异常状况,第二模态侧重于西南部分地区气温的异常状况;M-K检验指出在20世纪80年代中国冬季气温发生了一次由冷到暖的突变。

The article analyzes the main features of the change of temperature based on the average winter temperature data measured by 160 meteorological stations in China. In the research,the first mode of EOF analysis shows that the China＇s winter temperature has a good consistency,which means the trend of incre ment and fall of temperature are the same in China. This second mode of EOF indicates that the winter tem perature has the feature of reverse in south and north;The fist space--mode of REOF focuses on the abnormality state of the winter temperature in the middle and lower Yangtze River and the Southeast area, and the second mode focuses on some abnormality states of the Southwest area;M--K test points out that amuta tion from cold to warm happened in the 1980s of China＇s winter temperature.