江苏省水稻生产的综合气象灾害风险评估

Evaluating Integrated Meteorological Disaster Risk in Rice Production of Jiangsu Province

选用江苏省72个县市1951～2010年的水稻产量资料,利用五年直线滑动平均法分离出趋势产量和气象产量,以减产率大于5%作为受灾的界限,统计各县市灾害发生的频次,采用小波分析法分析其周期规律;通过灾年平均减产率、变异系数、风险指数和抗灾性能四个因素,构成综合风险评估模型,根据评估模型计算灾害风险度,对江苏省地区水稻生产的农业气象灾害进行风险区划并对结果进行检验。研究表明：①江苏省地区水稻产量的年代变化主要1951～1963年,1972～1986年以及1997～2005年,其余时间段产量波动较为平缓;②1951～2010年水稻受灾频次存在8年、16年、28年、32年、53年、58年时间尺度的显著周期性变化,以28年、32年为周期的震荡最强,是水稻受灾频次的第一主周期;③水稻综合风险度基本沿西北-东南分布,北部高于南部。获得了各种农业气象灾害综合影响下江苏省水稻生产的风险水平,可以为未来农业生产中水稻栽培管理、防灾减灾提供科学依据。

Based on the data of rice yields from 1951 to 2010 in 72 counties of Jiangsu Province using five-year linear sliding average method the trend yield and the meteorological yield were isolated. Using the rate of more than 5% as the affected boundaries. Statisticsing the frequency of occurrence of the disaster counties and analyze cycle regularity wavelet analysis. The model of damage risk evaluation is consisted of four parts, including average yield reduction ratio, the variation coefficient ,the risk index and the disaster index. The risk degree by the model of damage risk evaluation were calculated, and then the risk regionalization of agricultural meteorological disasters for rice in the Jiangsu Province were achieved and the results were tested. The modest research shows that：① the age changes of the dee production in the Jiangsu Province is mainly in 1951 - 1963,1972 ～ 1986,1997 ～ 2005 and the remaining time period yields is relatively flat;②The frequency of disaster had obviously periodic variation with 8 a, 16 a.28 a.32 a.53 a and 58 a temporal scales from 1951 to 2010. 28 a and 32 a is first major period; ③rice comprehensive risk substantially along the northwest - southeast distribution and the north higher than the south. A variety of agro-meteorological disaster risks under the combined effect in Jiangsu Province were obtained, for the future of the agricultural production of rice cultivation and management, disaster prevention and mitigation to provide a scientific basis.