基于突变级数法的深圳生态文明建设动态评估

Evaluation of the Eco-Civilization Construction of Shenzhen Based on Catastrophe Progression Method

面对工业文明带来的人类生存问题，生态文明日益受到关注。为对生态文明建设情况做客观评价，根据生态文明内涵及指标体系构建原则，在考虑数据可得性基础上构建了生态文明建设综合评估指标体系，采用突变级数法及达标评判法对深圳市2008～2012年生态文明建设情况进行评价。结果表明，深圳生态文明建设水平在2008~2012年呈稳步上升，主要得益于深圳在水、土、气、经济等方面施行的措施，如《深圳生态文明建设行动纲领（2008~2010）》等，生态文明得分分别为0．74、O．84、0．87、0．91、0．92；从总体结果看，表现不好的主要是生态经济方面指标，如产业结构相似度、单位工业增加值水耗、第三产业占比、节能环保占财政比例等。构建的指标体系内涵全面，具有适用性；突变级数法和达标评判法易操作，适于评价城市生态文明建设情况。

In face of the increasing problems caused by industrial civilization, the eco-civilization has attracted more and more attention. In order to make an objective evaluation of the eco-civilization construction, an eco-civilization construction evaluation system with catastrophe progression method and standard evaluation method was established based on connotations of urban eco-civilization and principles of index system building. Then the system was utilized for evaluating Shenzhen＇s eco-civilization between 2008 and 2012.The results showed that the eco-civilization construction level of Shenzhen kept steadily increasing during 2008 and 2012 due to the measures Shenzhen has implemented on the aspects of soil, water, gas and economy, and the eco-civilization scores from 2008 to 2012 were 0.74, 0.84, 0.87, 0.91 and 0.92, respectively. However, Shenzhen should pay more efforts on developing ecological economy such as reducing the similarity of industrial structure, improving the tertiary industry proportion, etc. The index system is highlighted by its comprehensiveness and good data availability. Besides, we found catastrophe progression method and standard evaluation method are easily operated and suitable for the evaluation of urban eco-civilization construction.