区域环境健康综合风险评价指标体系的构建及应用研究

Indicator system building for regional comprehensive environmental health risk assessment and its applications

探讨区域环境健康综合风险评价指标体系建立的原则、思路和方法,估算各省环境健康综合风险,为制定环境健康政策提供科学依据.运用层次分析法,结合主成分分析和独立性分析,按照"风险压力-风险现状-风险应对"的总体思路构建了23个指标的区域环境健康综合风险评价指标体系及其权重系数.运用2012年31个省(自治区、直辖市)的数据进行实证检验,并将评价结果进行聚类分析探讨地区风险的差异和规律.研究表明全国有9个省区域环境健康综合风险指数超过标准,其中特别发达(北京、天津、上海)及不发达地区环境健康综合风险相对较低,较为发达地区环境健康风险较高.区域环境健康综合风险评价指标较为科学合理,具有较好的推广性和实用性.

This paper explores the principles and approaches of building the indicator system for regional comprehensive environmental health risk assessment, estimates the comprehensive risks by provinces, therefore provides scientific basis for regional policies. The research applied Pressure-State-Response model to build an indicator system for comprehensive environmental health risk assessment with 23 indicators and their weight coefficients, using Analytic Hierarchy Process combined with principal component analysis and independence analysis. It was empirically tested by the 2012 data of 31 provinces, and a clustering analysis was conducted to reveal the similarity patterns and differences of regional risks. This research shows environmental health risks in 9 provinces are above the standards, developed regions（Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai） and underdeveloped regions have comparatively low risks, and high risks are discovered in quickly developing regions. The indicators developed in regional comprehensive environmental quality assessment are rational and practical, and can be applied to other researches.