一种基于证据理论和前景理论的船舶综合安全评估方法

Ship Formal Safety Assessment Method Based on Evidence Theory and Prospect Theory

传统的综合安全评估存在着许多不确定信息的评估、及不完整信息的收集。提出一种基于证据理论和前景理论结合的船舶综合安全评估方法,首先通过利用证据理论表示各个系统或部分的安全评估,它能很好地表示信息的不确定性和不完整性;然后利用已广泛应用的前景理论对整个船舶系统进行安全评估。实验结果表明:该方法能有效地对船舶系统进行安全评估。

Traditional safety assessment method has disadvantages,such as much uncertain information and incomplete information collection. A kind of method based on evidence theory and prospect theory was proposed to assess the safety of the ship. Firstly,the theory of evidence was used to show the safety assessment of each system or parts,which could well demonstrate the uncertainty and incompleteness of information. Then,the widely-used prospect theory was used to assess the whole ship＇s safety system. The experimental results show that the proposed method can effectively assess the system＇s safety of the ship.