经济长期停滞:现象、原因、对策及启示

Secular Stagnation: Phenomena, Causes, Countermeasures and Lessons

发达经济体是否陷入长期停滞是目前理论界广泛关注的问题。基于对相关研究文献的梳理分析,本文发现经济长期停滞主要表现在潜在经济增长下移、实际利率长期趋势性下降和非就业率上升三个方面;其原因既有重大技术创新停滞、人力资本增长缓慢等供给面因素,也包括基础设施较为完备导致的投资需求下降、收入差距扩大导致消费需求不足等需求面因素。在应对上,走出长期停滞根本上依靠结构性改革,包括改革教育制度提升人力资本、推迟退休年龄弥补劳动力缺口、鼓励技术创新等;在需求方面,货币政策受制于名义利率零界的约束,效力有所下降,财政政策效果可能更为显著,同时以总需求管理为重点的宏观政策必须考虑对金融稳定可能产生的负面影响。目前,我国经济增长正处于新旧常态过渡阶段,必须加快推进供给端改革,防止潜在增长率的进一步下滑;适度管理总需求,确保宏观政策的可持续性;同时高度关注前几年债务过快积累带来的金融风险,维护金融体系稳定。

Whether developed economies are trapped in a secular stagnation has attracted wide academic attentions. Based on a comprehensive review of academic literature, it is revealed in this paper that a secular stagnation is characterized by decreased potential economic growth, long term reduction of real interest rate as well as increased non-employment rate. The reasons behind a secular stagnation includes slowing down of technology innovations, declining of human capital growth, decreasing of investment demand due to well developed infrastructure, and lackluster consumption caused by increasing inequality in developed economies. Fundamentally, to step out of a secular stagnation, it is relied on structural reforms including enhancing human capital through educational reform, filling labor gap by delaying retirement age, and encouraging technology innovations, etc. From the perspective of demand, the effectiveness of monetary policy diminishes due to the zero bound of nominal interest rate, and in comparison, fiscal policy may achieve better results. At the same time, sufficient attention should be given to the negative consequences brought by aggregate demand-focused c policies upon the financial stability. Currently, China＇s economic growth is transiting into the New Normal, which requires acceleration of reforms on the supply side in order to prevent the slide of potential growth rate. Additionally, we also need to moderately manage aggregate demand, maintain the sustainability of macro policy, and closely monitor financial risks arising from rapid debt growth of the previous years in order to maintain the stability of the financial system.