基于回归模型的中国铁路能源消耗分析

Analysis on energy consumption of Chinese railway based on regression model

针对国家铁路能源消耗问题,依据1990-2011年统计数据,选择影响铁路运输换算周转量和铁路运输单耗的指标,分别进行回归分析,建立铁路运输换算周转量和铁路运输单耗模型,利用2012-2014年中国铁路运输能耗数据对模型进行验证.提出国家铁路运输能源消耗量计算模型,并与实际能源消耗值进行比较,深入分析不同因素对中国铁路能源消耗量变化的影响.研究表明,国家铁路能耗计算模型能够反映中国铁路能源消耗的变化规律和趋势,GDP与牵引机车数量对铁路运输能耗变化有不同的影响,电力机车数量是影响国家铁路运输能耗变化的主要因素.

Aimed at energy consumption of Chinese railway,this paper selected reasonable indicators as factors based on statistical data from 1990 to 2011.Models of conversion volume and unit energy consumption were established by regression and tested with real data of 2012-2014.The calculation model of energy consumption of Chinese railway was proposed and model data were compared with the real.Impacts of different factors on variations of energy consumption of Chinese railway were analyzed deeply.Analysis demonstrates that this calculation model can reflect variations and trends of energy consumption of Chinese railway.Besides,GDP and locomotives' quantity have different impacts on changes of energy consumption of Chinese railway while the number of electric locomotives is the main factor which influences variations most.