海外油气管道社会风险评估方法

Assessment method of security risk of overseas oil and gas pipeline

基于海外各项目的社会安全风险现状,引入脆弱性理论,提出海外油气管道脆弱性评价方法,进而完善油气管道社会安全风险评估体系。从资产评估、威胁方评估、目标吸引力评估及脆弱度评估4个方面建立油气管道脆弱性评估模型,资产评估、威胁方评估、目标吸引力评估通过历史数据及现状定性评估,脆弱度评估通过事故树及专家咨询得出管道脆弱度因素。以此建立3级指标体系,并查阅标准确定各指标等级集,利用Matlab软件编程计算权重,运用模糊综合评价法定量计算。以海外某管道为例,进行安全现状脆弱性分析,所得结果证明该方法可行。

The vulnerability assessment theory is used and the vulnerability assessment methodology is proposed considering current security risk for overseas pipeline projects, helping to improve the security risk assessment system of oil and gas pipeline. The vulnerability assessment model is established for four aspects, i.e. assets, threat, target attractiveness and vulnerability. Specifically, the assets, threat and target attractiveness are assessed qualitatively using historical data and current situation, while the vulnerability is assessed by fault tree and expert consultation which will derive vulnerability factors. On this basis, a three-level index system is built, and the index level sets are confirmed through consulting relevant standards; the weights of indexs are calculated using Matlab software, and quantitative calculation are made using comprehensive fuzzy evaluation method. Taking the overseas pipeline as an example, vulnerability analysis of current security status is conducted, and the result shows that the method is feasible.