中国影子银行的流动性创造、杠杆率与金融稳定性研究

Study on the Liquidity Creation,Leverage and Financial Stability of China's Shadow Banking

文章选取2002—2014年我国相关经济指标作为研究样本,构建模型分析了中国影子银行的流动性创造、自我稳定性以及对商业银行稳定性的冲击,分别从定性和定量两个视角对以上论点进行了评述。研究发现:(1)影子银行确实能够创造很高的流动性且作用于实体经济,在长期与GDP之间存在正向纽带关系,但这种影响短期内可能存在较大波动,甚至形成一定负面影响。(2)影子银行丰富市场融资渠道、带动经济发展的同时,由于其内容的期限错配和高杠杆率,有可能无限制放大系统性风险,引发金融危机,体现其双刃剑属性。(3)影子银行既弥补了银行体系的信贷流动性不足,同时也不可避免地与商业银行间存在激烈的竞争关系,影子银行规模较小时,能够促进银行业的稳定;但当其规模超过阀值后,将会对银行业的稳定性形成挑战。

This article selects China＇s economic indicators from 2002 to 2013 as a sample, constructed a model toanalyze the liquidity creation, self-stability of China＇ s shadow banking and its impact on the stability of the commer-cial banks. It respectively makes a comment from the perspective of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. Thestudy finds that firstly, the shadow banking indeed creates high liquidity and has its impact on the real economy, andthere exists a positive bond with GDP for a long time. However, this impact possibly will fluctuate in a short term,even bringing some negative effects. Secondly, shadow banking enriches financing channels for the market, stimu-lates the economic development. But due to the term mismatch and high leverage ratio, it will probably amplify the sys-tematic risk and trigger the financial crisis, like a double-edged sword. Thirdly, shadow banking makes up for the lackof credit liquidity in the banking system. Meanwhile, it is inevitable for it to fiercely compete with the commercialbanks. When the scale of shadow banking is quite low, it can promote stability of the banking industry. However,when its scale surpasses the threshold, it will pose a challenge for the stability of the commercial banks.