人口规模和结构变化对经济增长和社会福利的影响——理论分析和实证检验

Influence of Population Size and Demographic Structure on Economic Growth and Social Welfare:Theoretical Analysis and Empirical Study

基于RCK模型,放松了效用贴现因子不变的假设,将人口规模和人口结构的变化与时间偏好相结合,从理论和实证两个方面分析了人口因素(即人口规模和人口年龄结构)对经济增长、稳态消费和社会福利的影响。理论模型的分析结果显示:稳态消费和产出两者均与人口规模之间存在倒U型关系,劳动年龄人口占比与人均产出和人均消费正相关,技术进步能够提高稳态资本和产出。基于1996—2013年中国省际面板数据的实证分析结果验证了理论模型的结论,即人均产出和人均消费与人口规模之间存在倒U型关系,技术进步可以促进经济增长和消费、减小人口问题的负面影响。

Based on the RCK model,and relaxing the hypothesis that constant discounting factor is constant,and combining the changes of population size and demographic structure with time preference,this paper analyzes theoretically and empirically the influence of population size and demographic structure on economy growth,consumption in steady state and social welfare.The result based on theoretical model shows as follows：with the growth of population,both consumption in steady state and production per capita experience firstly increase and then decline;per capita output and per capita consumption have positive correlations with the proportion of work-age population;with technology growth,capital on steady state would be larger than before and so is production.The empirical analysis by using the panel data from 1996 to 2013prove the conclusion of theoretical model that is there is a inverted U-type curve relationship between population size and output per capita as well as per capita consumption,and technological progress would improve economic growth and consumption,and decrease the negative influence of population aging problem.