社区服务与人口流动:基于京津冀协同发展视角的考察

Community Service and Population Migration:Study on the Cooperative Development of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei

实现北京外来流动人口向津冀两地的疏散需要做出多方面的努力,当前北京正通过疏解产业来实现这一目标。但是外来人口流入的原因多样,除经济因素外,迁入地能否提供更好的社区服务也是一项关键因素。本研究使用国家卫生计生委流动人口动态监测调查社区数据,比较和分析京津冀地区人口流入和流动人口社区服务的现况,并在此基础上构建短面板数据探讨流动人口社区服务对人口流入的影响程度。结果表明,京津冀地区的人口流入态势差别明显,这与流动人口社区服务的供给水平不同紧密相关,子女就学服务显著促进人口流入,而就业援助服务则会显著减少人口流入,与河北地级城市相比,北京和天津两市的子女就学服务水平相对更高,而就业援助服务水平则差异不大,这是北京和天津人口过多过快流入,而河北地级城市人口流入相对较少的一大原因。

In order to redistribute the floating population in Beijing, the government has taken steps to transfer the related industry,but other measures should also been put into practice,because the influencing factors of population migration are various, of which community service of migration destinations is an important one besides the economic factors. Using the community data of National Floating Population Supervision Survey conducted by National Health and Family Planning Commission of China, this paper examines and analyses the status quo of population migration and community service of the floating population in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei. Then a series of short panel data regression models are constructed to explore the influence of community service on population migration. The results show there exist great differences of population migration among three provinces,which is closely associated with the supply of community service. Education service could contribute to population immigration significantly while employment service couldn＇t,which could provide one possibility to explain why the numbers of population immigration in Beijing and Tianjin are much larger than cities in Hebei.