中碳强度指数与中国低碳发展

The relationship between SINO Carbon Intensity Index and low carbon economy development in China

中碳强度指数是为全国节能减排行业提供一个以单位国内生产总值（GDP）二氧化碳排放量为载体的指数系统,可有效反映时间序列上地区或行业碳排放强度的变化。2005—2011年中碳强度指数总体呈下降趋势。按中碳强度指数将我国各省级行政区分为五类,其中：大部分地区的指数均集中在0～100之间;指数高于100的四类和五类地区主要是煤炭生产大省和西部欠发达地区;而指数低于0的一类地区主要是经济发达地区。采用对数均值迪氏分解（LMDI）法分析陕西、贵州两省碳强度的影响因素时发现,能源强度下降是其碳强度指数下降的主要原因。结合＂十二五＂各地区的减排目标,预测了各省级行政区在剩余年份达成目标的压力,结果显示,我国的碳减排任务艰巨,其中内蒙古、宁夏等省份面临巨大的减排压力。

SINO carbon intensity index is expressed as the carbon dioxide emission per GDP, which can reflect the changes of carbon emission intensity from different administrative regions with time. From 2005 to 2011, The SINO carbon intensity index of China showed a downward trend. The provinces can be classified into five categories based on the SINO carbon intensity index from high to low. The majority of the provincial indices are between 0 and 100. The provinces with coal mining industry and less-developed areas in western China are ranked fourth-class and fifth-class regions,whose indices are above 100. The provinces with indices below zero （first-class regions） are mainly developed areas. Further analyzing the carbon emission intensity of Shaanxi and Guizhou based on the LMDI method, the results showed that the decline of index could be attributed to the energy intensity reduction. According to the provincial emission reduction targets in the 12th Five-Year Work Plan, the emission reduction gaps in the remaining years of each province to achieve their targets were predicted. The results showed a significant emission reduction intensity gap. Especially, provinces such as Inner Mongolia and Ningxia are under great pressure to accomplish their targets.