美国货币-物价、货币-汇率双重背离问题研究

The Study on Dual Divergences of US Currency- Price and Currency- Exchange Rate

国际金融危机以来美国的货币-物价与货币-汇率运行明显不符合经济学常理,均出现严重背离。研究显示,美国货币-物价背离的根本原因在于量化宽松货币政策的内生缺陷和持续恶化的金融生态,导致美联储投放的流动性被囤积、空转和外溢,无法抬升通胀水平。美国货币-汇率运行背离的主要原因在于美国对外债务扩张形成的美元需求和打压欧元导致的欧元贬值。美国货币-物价运行的背离说明,如果缺乏导流机制,再宽松的货币政策也无法实现政策目标,因此,我们有理由认为,附带导流机制的中国定向宽松货币政策优于美国的量化宽松货币政策。美国货币-汇率运行的背离说明,美元仍然是美国的核心利益,美国会采用常规和非常规的措施,以维持美元的全球霸权地位。

US currency- price and currency- exchange rate did not conform to the common sense of economics since the international financial crises. Our study shows that the main reasons of US currency - price divergence are the endogenous defects of the quantitative easing monetary policy and the worsening financial ecology, which led the liquidity of FED hoarded, idled and spilled over, the level of CPI cannot been raised. The main masons of US currency- exchange rate divergence are the US foreign debt expansion and the Euro depreciation. US Currency - price divergence shows if lack of guide mechanism, the monetary policy cannot achieve policy objectives, Chinese monetary policy attached with guide mechanism is better than US quantitative easing monetary policy. US Currency- exchange rate divergence shows, US dollar remains the core of United States, the US government will use the conventional and unconventional ways to maintain US dollar hegemony.