国际石油市场现状分析和2015年四季度及2016年展望

International Oil Market Today and Outlook for Q4 2015 and 2016

欧佩克2014年11月做出任由市场自行定价并重新实现平衡的政策决定后,2015年以来油价同比跌去一半。欧佩克的持续高产和以美国为主的非欧佩克产量对低油价显示出的弹性,使全球供应量一直远超需求。2015年最后几个月至2016年,全球石油市场聚焦的主要问题是欧佩克的市场策略动向、低油价下美国原油产量的最新变化和中国经济新常态下油品需求增长前景。预计2015年四季度布伦特油价波动范围将扩大,大部分时间会徘徊于50～55美元/bbl之间。全球产量增长超过需求增长的格局至少会延续到2016年上半年,即期低于远期合约的价格曲线结构在刺激更多的原油进入储运设施,使石油库存创纪录高涨,对全球陆上存储空间构成挑战。伊朗解除禁运后将增加出口的预期,对2015年四季度的油价也有负面影响,同时也将使2016年的市场继续供过于求。预计2016年布伦特油价在基本面仍供大于求的形势下,将继续在50～60美元/bbl之间波动,供应过剩的局面将在上半年持续。某些牛市因素将有助于防止油价过度下跌,产量增速减弱和需求上升可能使过剩的供应量在2016年下半年被逐渐消化。

Following OPEC＇s decision to let market forces determine prices and regain balance in November 2014,oil prices have fallen 50% year on year so far this year.The sustained high level of production by OPEC and the flexibility of non-OPEC production,noticeably in the United States,to low oil prices have re- sulted in global supply having long far exceeded demand.In the last few months of 2015 and in 2016, OPEC＇s market strategy movement,changes in the United States＇ crude oil production and the prospect for the growth in China＇s oil product demand in a ＂new normal＂ economy will attract the most attention of the global oil market.It is predicted that Brent oil prices will fluctuate more dramatically in the fourth quarter of 2015 and will hover between US$50 and 55/bbl most of the time.The situation where global production growth outpaces demand growth will remain at least until the second half of 2016.The price curve structure where spot prices are lower than forward prices are encouraging more crude oil to go into storage and trans- portation facilities ,resulting in an unprecedented surge in oil inventory and also posing a challenge to global onshore storage spaces.The expectation that Iran will increase its exports after the embargo on the country is lifted also has an adverse effect on oil prices in the fourth quarter of 2015 and consequently,the market will remain oversupplied in 2016.Given the fundamental that supply still exceeds d＇emand,Brent oil prices will continue to fluctuate between US$50 and 60/bbl in 2016 and the market will remained oversupplied in the first half of 2016.Some bullish factors will help arrest an excessive decline of oil prices and a slowdown in production and a rally in demand may help digest oversupplies in the second half of 2016.