王室权力机制与沙特政权之稳定

Mechanisms of Power inside the Saudi Royal Family and the Saudi Regime Stability

进入石油时代以来,沙特王室本身在沙特政权稳定中的作用显著增加。这一方面是由于在国家—社会关系、王室与其他精英群体的联盟中,权力平衡极大地倾向于前者,另一方面也是由于沙特王室垄断国家核心权力,且通过其内部权力机制很大程度上解决了王室的集体行动困境。未来沙特政权的稳定很大程度上取决于王室内部的联盟、分权、制衡同决策能力和领导能力之间的平衡,王室内部的冲突将围绕国王集权和各大亲王权力圈子展开,但最有助于沙特政权稳定的仍是各大亲王适度分权的家族统治。

The role of Saudi royal family itself has been increasing incredibly since entering oil age. This on the one hand is because that the power balance has leaned dramatically to the former in Saudi state-society relations and the alliances between Saudi royal family and other elite groups, on the other hand the monopoly of state＇s core power by Saudi royal family and the inner power mechanisms of the royal family that largely avoids its collective action problems. The stability of future Saudi regime depends largely on the balance between Saudi royal family＇s inner alliances, power-sharing and checks on one side and the ability of decision-making and leading on the other, while the future struggle within Saudi royal family will center on autocratic rule by the king and oligarchy by senior princes, but the polity that benefits the stability of Saudi regime most is the polity of family rule with power modestly-shared among senior princes.