粗糙集理论在输变电工程造价风险评价指标体系优化中的应用

Optimization of Evaluation Index System from Power Transmission Project Cost Risk Based on Rough Seta Theory

我国在输变电工程造价风险评价、风险控制方面还未形成一个科学合理的管理体系。本文试图建立完整的输变电工程造价风险评价指标体系,并选用科学合理的粗糙集理论方法对其优化。文章首先利用WBSRBS风险识别方法,从输变电工程内部影响因素及外部影响因素两个维度,对输变电工程的造价风险进行了全面的识别,并初步建立了一套造价风险评价指标体系。其次,运用粗糙集理论并结合发放问卷所获得的基础数据,对初步建立的评价指标体系进行优化,去除冗余指标,从而建立了一套更加科学合理的输变电工程造价风险评价指标体系,为以后的风险管理提供参考依据。

The aspect of the power transmission project cost of risk assessment and risk controlhas not yet formed a scientific and rational management system in our country. This paper attempts to establish a complete evaluation index system on power transmission project cost risk,and choose a scientific and rational optimization on rough set theory. Firstly,it uses WBS-RBS risk identification methods to identifythe cost of risk factors for transmission projectcomprehensively from endogenous and exogenous factors in two dimensionsand establishan initial risk assessment system. Secondly,it combines rough set theory and the basic dataobtained by questionnaire to optimize the evaluation index system,which is preliminary established to remove redundant indicators,so as to establish a more scientific and reasonable cost risk assessment system from power transmission project and providing a referencebasis for future risk management.