股票市场羊群行为研究述评与展望

Outlook and Review on the Study of Herding Beahvior in Stock Market

股市是现代金融体系的重要组成部分,也是维系整个经济系统正常运转不可或缺的金融中介组织,是衡量资本运行效率、行业运转前景和经济发展态势的重要手段。随着行为金融理论的兴起和快速发展,对股票市场行为特征的研究逐步成为金融领域研究的热点和焦点。文章分别从内涵界定、形成性机理、存在性检验、市场影响效应和演化过程特征等方面对股市羊群行为的最新研究进展进行述评,通过理论综述和对比分析,国内外学术界关于股市羊群行为的研究大多采用计量和实证的方法对其进行检验和回溯,从复杂性理论和方法视角来研究股市羊群行为的演变过程及其可能的成果相对较少。在此基础上,文章对金融市场羊群效应乃至金融行为系统的未来研究方向做出了述评和展望。

As an important part of modern financial system, stock market is considered to be an indispensable intermediary organization which maintains the economic system healthily, as an important means of a measurement of the efficiency of capital operation and industry and economic development trend. With the development of behavioral finance theory, studying on the behavior of the stock market gradually becomes the focus in the financial field. Here is a comprehensive review and outlook on the herding behavior from five dimensions, such as connotation definition, formation mechanism, existence test, market impact effect, and evolution process features. Most of the researches are focus on the examination and retrospection of the herding behavior in financial markets by the methods of empirical analysis. While, the studies conducted through the scope of complex theory are relatively few. Based on the above analysis, further outlook of this study field is given in the end.