技术进步、新型城镇化和就业——基于省际面板数据的经验分析

Technology Progress,New-type Urbanization and Employment—— An Empirical Analysis Based on the Provincial Panel Data

在我国新型城镇化加速发展,经济转向技术创新驱动的新常态背景下,文章利用2008-2013年的省级面板数据,对技术进步、新型城镇化与城镇单位就业总量的关系进行了理论分析和实证研究。结果表明:技术进步是影响就业的一个重要因素,其中以RD表征的自主创新和以FDI表征的技术引进均对就业具有正向影响,且自主创新对就业的影响程度更大。新型城镇化的发展对就业的影响也为正,城镇化率每提升1%,会带来城镇就业总量增加0.088%~0.165%。此外,经济增长、产业结构升级对就业均有较强的拉动作用,而工资的上涨对就业具有负向影响。基于研究结论,提出了相应的政策建议。

In the context of accelerating development of urbanization and China＇ s economy shifting to a technological inno- vation-driven new normal, this paper, using the provincial panel data of China from 2008 to 2013, makes a theoretic analysis and empirical study on the relationship between technology progress, new-type urbanization and total urban employment. The results show that technolo~ progress is an important factor ＇affecting employment, which independent innovation characterized by RD and technology import characterized by FDI have a positive effect on employment, and the effect of indepen- dent innovation is greater than that of technology import. The development of new-type urbanization also has a positive effect on cmpluyment, amt a 1% incre^se in urbanization rate will result in a 0.088% to 0.165% up in the total urban employment. In addition, both economic growth and industrial structure upgrading also have a strong pulling effect on employment, where- as the rise in wages has a negative effect on employment. The paper puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations based on the research conclusions.