分权化改革背景下的财政分权与金融体制变迁

Fiscal Decentralization and Financial System Change in the Context of Decentralization Reform

文章利用1978-2014年各省、直辖市和自治区的面板数据,对财政分权和金融体制变迁之间的领先—滞后关系进行了分析。研究结果表明,无论是1978-2014年全时间段还是以1994年分税制改革为临界线的分时间段,金融体制变迁是财政分权单向因果关系的结论以及金融体制变迁抑制财政分权的结论都是稳健的,但是,分区域稳健性检验表明,东部经济发展水平较高地区的这种关系是稳健的,内地却不显著。当把经济发展水平因素引入模型中分析表明,经济发展水平越高,金融体制变迁抑制财政分权越显著,但找不到财政分权影响金融体制变迁的证据。因此,在中国分权化改革背景下,作为经济体制改革一部分的金融体制变迁伴随着抑制财政分权的过程,而且这种抑制程度和经济发展水平成正比关系。

This paper analyzes the lead-lag relationship between fiscal deeentralization and financial system change by using the panel data of provincial-level administrative areas in China from 1978 to 2014. The results indicate that financial system change supports unidirectional causality to fiscal decentralization, and it is robust that fiscal decentralization is suppressed by financM system change, no nmtter in the whole period of 1978 to 2014, or diferent time sections taking the tax-sharing reform in 1994 as the critical point, ttowever, the robust test among different regions shows that the relationship is robust in the eastern region where the economic development level is relatively high. On the contrary, it is not obvious in the inland re- gions. The analysis, by introducing economic development factors into the model, indicates that the higher the economic de- velopment level, the more significant the suppression of financial system change on fiscal decentralization. Nevertheless, there is no evidence showing the impact of fiscal decentralization on financial system change. Thus, financial system change, as a component of economic system reforni, follows the process of suppressing fiscal decentralization, and the degee of suppression is positively proportional to the economic development in the context of decentralization reform in China.