东太平洋、大洋海岭与大陆裂谷地震带大震预测

Prospective prediction of major or great earthquakes for the seismic belts of the eastern Pacific Ocean,ocean ridge and continental rift

基于孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论,对北美洲板块划分了3个板内地震区,对加勒比板块划分了6个板间与板内地震区,对斯科舍板块划分了7个板间地震区,对大洋海岭地震带划分了4个板间地震区,对大陆裂谷地震带划分了3个地震区.从孕育周期界定与主震事件判识角度,分析了这些地震区大（巨）震事件孕育过程,研判了其未来震情.结果表明：关塔那摩-圣胡安与波哥大-阿里卡-瓦尔迪维亚地震区未来有巨震发生;普利茅斯-库马纳与贝加尔湖地震区未来有大震或巨震发生;哈利法克斯-纽约-亚特兰大、阿拉斯加半岛、波兹曼-华雷斯城、韦韦特南戈-科万、加拉加斯-库库塔、巴拿马城、太子港-金斯顿-特古西加尔巴、蓬塔阿雷纳斯、南桑威奇群岛、蒙塔古岛、布里奇曼岛、朱巴-布琼布拉与夏威夷群岛地震区未来有大震发生;大洋海岭地震区B与阿塞拉-利隆圭地震区未来有强震或大震发生;西斯科舍海盆地震区未来有强震发生;斯科舍海盆、大洋海岭地震区A与大洋海岭地震区C当前孕育周期主震事件已发生,目前处于余震活动期;对于蒙塔古岛东部地震区,若2006年MW7.4级地震为主震事件,则该区未来有可能发生MW7.0级左右余震,若非主震事件则未来将发生MW7.6-7.8级地震.本文所得结论可供有关国家相关部门参考,以采取有效防震减灾措施.

Based on the brittle failure theory of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system, we analyzed the seismogenic process of major or great characteristic earthquake events in connection with the North American plate,Caribbean plate,Scotia plate,ocean ridge and continental rift.Moreover,we forecasted the future earthquake situation through the definition of seismogenic period and the recognition of the main shock event.The results showed that great earthquakes will occur in the seismic zones of Guantanamo-San Juan and BogotaArica-Valdivia;major or great earthquakes will occur in the seismic zones of Plymouth-Cumana and Baikal;major earthquakes will occur in the seismic zones of Halifax-New York-Atlanta,Alaska Peninsula,Bozeman-Ciudad Juarez, HuehuetenangoCoban,Caracas-Cucuta,Panama City,Port-au-Prince-KingstonTegucigalpa,Punta Arenas,South Sandwich Islands,Montagu Island, Bridgeman Island,Juba-Bujumbura and Hawaiian islands;strong or major earthquakes will occur in the ocean ridge seismic zone of No.B and the Asella-Lilongwe seismic zone;a strong earthquake will occur in the western Scotia basin seismic zone;main shock events have occurred in the current seismogenic period for the seismic zone of Scotia basin and the ocean ridge seismic zones of No.A and No.C,but the aftershock activity is not yet over for these three zones.For the East Montague island seismic zone,if the 2006 MW7.4earthquake is regarded as a main shock event,the aftershock event with-MW 7.0will likely occur;otherwise,aMW7.6~7.8earthquake will take place in the future.Our results provide the valuable prediction information for the relevant departments of relevant countries to take effective measures for earthquake damage reduction.