中国土地财政的区域差异与演进过程——基于287个地级市的面板数据

Regional disparities and the evolution of China's land finance based on panel data for 287 prefecture-level cities

为了深入探讨中国土地财政区域差异的基本规律,本文采用2003-2012年中国287个地级市的面板数据,以人均土地出让金收入为指标,采用基尼系数分解方法和非参数估计方法,系统分析了中国土地财政的区域差异及其动态演进过程,为制定并实施差异化的地方财政转型政策提供有价值的依据和参考。研究结论表明:1考察期内中国土地财政呈现出非常显著的区域差异性,基尼系数测算及其分解结果表明,土地财政的区域差异总体呈现缩小的趋势,不同区域间存在的差异性一直是导致土地财政总体差异的主要原因;2Kernel核密度估计表明,中国土地财政的区域差异在样本考察期内呈波动下降态势;3Markov链分析表明,不同量级的土地财政类型发生跨区间流动的概率较低,预期中国土地财政指标总体将朝中高水平方向发展。

In order to explore the mechanism of regional disparities of China＇ s land finance, based on panel data for 287 prefecture-level cities in China from 2003 to 2012, and per capita income of land grant premiums as the indicator, we empirically examined the decomposition and dynamic evolution process of regional disparities in China＇ s land finance indicators, to provide useful reference and basis for developing and implementing different local fiscal transition policies. We found distinct regional disparities in China＇ s land finance 2003 - 2012. According to the overall Gini coefficient, regional disparities in China＇ s land finance indicators narrowed year by year and the unbalanced spatial distribution was alleviated, but there is still high fluctuations in special years. Decomposition of Gini coefficient by groups indicates that inter-regional disparity is the main reason for regional disparities in China＇ s land finance, intra-regional disparity makes steady contribution to overall disparities, and the contribution rate of intensity of trans-variations is rising. Kernel density estimation shows that regional disparities in China＇ s land finance indicators decline with fluctuation from 2003 to 2012. Markov chain analysis shows that the probability of trans-regional flow of different levels of land finance types is low; the relative position of different regions in the overall level distribution is relatively stable; with constant development of the economy, medium and low level land finance indicators may not exist, and it is expected that overall land finance indicators for cities in the whole country will develop towards medium-high level and high levels. Land finance indicators of all cities are relatively unbalanced spatially. Thus, central and local governments at all levels should take account of actual land finance situations when formulating land fiscal and taxation policies in order to realize systematic management of land finance through differentiated regional policy arrangement.